New York, October 26 (FinanceEnquiry.com) – Analyst Jason West at Deutsche Bank Securities reiterates BUY rating on the shares of Panera Bread Co (NASDAQ: PNRA). The 12-month target price is set to $190.
In a research note published on October 24, the analyst mentions that in opposition to estimate of $1.20 and the consensus Metrix of $1.19, Panera Bread reported third quarter EPS of $1.24 (+28 percent y/y). Furthermore, company comps and margins were also ahead of estimate and the consensus. EBIT of $60 million was ahead of estimate and the consensus predictions of $57 million.
Besides, EPS guidance of fourth quarter of 2012 was marginally increased from $1.66-1.70 to $1.72-1.74. Not only this, the company also augmented operating margin guidance of fourth quarter from +25 -75 basis points to +75-100 basis points. In addition to this, coming above the model and the consensus of +5.5 percent and +5.2 percent, respectively, company comps of fourth quarter were up +6.1 percent for the first 27 days of quarter.
Moreover, including the 53rd week (consensus is equal to $6.90) and same store sales (SSS) guidance of +4.5 percent to 5.5 percent (the consensus +4.0 percent), Panera Bread also gave primary 2013 EPS guidance of $6.85-7.00. With 0-50 basis point of operating margin enhancement, new unit growth was guided to 115-120. Due to the benefit from the extra week that is guessed at approximately 15c to 16c, which ought to be a positive commodity outlook in 1H13, and no planned share buybacks, the preliminary read is that EPS guidance appears conventional to some extent.
At the low end of the long-term range (15 percent to 20 percent), guidance implies roughly 15 percent EPS growth of 2013, exclusive of extra week. Additionally, Panera Bread has a history of providing traditional initial guidance. Furthermore, estimated historical P/E analysis for the years 2012 and 2013 are 27.7 x and 22.8 x, respectively, while for 2011, actual P/E analysis was 25.6 x, the analyst adds further.
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