In a research note published on September 20, the analyst mentions that important lessons to mining investors are supposed to have been offered by derating of the Pharma sector over the last decade and moreover this, several parallels between the sectors of Pharmaceutical and Mining are also found.
In addition to this, the question of sustainability of earnings has been brought into focus by the latest steps in commodity prices, which is believed to result in a structurally lower price-to-book value just as early patent expiries knocked assurance in earnings of pharma. Furthermore, on a PE of 11.2 x, an EV/FCF of 66x and an Economic PE of 15.9x, the mining sector is calculated to trade after its latest rebound.
Into advanced prices of share, high earnings and demand growth will not translate. Additionally, it is supposed to suffer similar dynamics to the Pharmaceutical sector after the excitement of 1990, even though the sector seems inexpensive on accounting measures.
The ratio of CAPEX or depreciation is yet at its uppermost level ever. Furthermore, even though 48 percent was the nominal GDP growth, capital that was invested at the main miners grew by 58 percent in the period of 2002 to 2006. However, rising the intensity of capital considerably, assets accumulated at almost twice the rate of GDP growth (44 percent in opposition to 24 percent) between 2007 and 2011.
Therefore, on capital, peak commodity prices would not translate into peak returns and the risks have become asymmetric for that reason. The remaining assets would return slightly more than the COC and asset impairment would become essential if prices skid further. While payout ratio of Antofagasta is first-rate and its CAPEX appears to be heading in the correct way, BHP is the stock that seems most protected on the sensitivity analysis, the analyst adds further.
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