In a research note published on September 27, the analyst mentions that hospital volumes of third quarter are tracking to some extent better than the weak trends that were witnessed during second quarter and this is said on the basis of volume tracker data of July & August.
Furthermore, QTD input hospital volumes in the survey were – 1.0 percent yoy in opposition to 3 percent in second quarter when the results of July to August were averaged. Other volume indicators for example visits of emergency room, output surgery and even births seemed improved consecutively and in opposition to +1.7 percent in second quarter, QTD output hospital volumes were +4.1 percent yoy.
In addition to this, thus developing confidence level on the subject of near-term earnings trends, during third quarter for hospital-based volumes, a more stable operating environment is recommended by these data-points. For every of the health care facility stocks under the coverage that are discussed, P/E and EV/EBITDA-based valuation methodologies are employed.
Moreover, on the basis of evaluation of relative growth rates and competitive position, something is chosen that deemed to be a suitable multiple on the forward earnings estimates. Regulatory and legislative risks related with the election, execution of PPACA and the fiscal cliff, augmented competition of industry, integration risk of acquisitions and deployed physicians, modifications change in payer mix, uncompensated care, Medicare or Medicaid cuts, utilization pressures and risks of IT implementation connected with HITECH significant use incentives and systems conversions have been comprised in the risks to investing in the sector, the analyst adds further.
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