New York, July 17 (FinanceEnquiry.com) – Analysts at Deutsche Bank Securities report on US Economics Weekly.
In a research note published on July 16, the analysts mention that seeing the scope of back revisions, forecast for Q2 2012 real GDP growth has been marked down due to data over the past two weeks, however, till the time Q2 GDP figures are official, there is a hesitation to change forecast of the second half.
In addition to this, mainly due to the revised growth profile, Q2 real GDP report of last year was a significant and market moving event. Furthermore, to the second half 2010 GDP, a meaningful downward revision existed and as compared to that of the expectations, the first half growth ended up being much weaker. In the second half of 2011, the economy still has shown some improvement despite this downward momentum and tightening financial conditions. Again this year, a similar kind of profile may get unfolded.
Even though, this not being one of the baseline cases, still, the chance of further monetary stimulus in the form of a third round of quantitative easing has grown substantially. Before Congress, semi-annual monetary policy testimony will be provided by Chairman Bernanke and whensoever this is done clues in respect of the latest thinking of Fed will come next week, the analysts add further.
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